Monday, July 31, 2006

 

Constrained Problem Solving

Yesterday was the first day I really hunkered down and started doing my research for fantasy football. It was at this point that I realized what all of the things that I like have in common. All of the things that I like involve using constrained problem solving and analytical thinking.

Take poker for example, everyone in the world thinks that when poker players are taking a long time staring at their opponent they are looking for the guy to scratch his head or look to the left and get some “tell”. The truth is that the majority of their brain power is solving a puzzle. They try to think about all of the hands their opponent could be holding and eliminating them based on their betting actions on all of the betting rounds. That is what makes Texas hold’em an interesting game. There are four betting rounds, all of which are different pieced to the puzzle. At this point a good poker player starts applying rough percentages on the odds the player has particular hands and makes a play that maximizes his EV (expected value). Maximizing one’s EV is the goal of poker and life. In poker as in life, decisions must be made, luck is heavily involved, information is vital, and the goal is to end off with the best chance of being best off.

Engineering has elements of EV, especially in the professional world, and certainly has constrained problem solving. Most engineering involves designing something of commercial value. There are often constraints and definitely analysis to determine how design changes effect efficiency in comparison to cost (the bottom line). This type of maximization is what interests me.

How is fantasy football like this in any way? Well, it depends on how you approach it. Some guys go to the draft with a magazine and a gut instinct and just pick someone near the top of the list that they like or think will improve. This is a less sophisticated version of what is common practice for evaluating talent in the NFL and many sports franchises. Billy Beane changed this for many baseball teams. His book, Moneyball, described how he was able to use economic statistical analysis to put together great baseball teams for the Oakland A’s in a small market with a small salary bankroll. Running a fantasy football is more like running a baseball team than it is like running a football team. In baseball, especially at the plate, players work as individuals and it is easy to access information on how their play affects the team in the W/L column. The same is true in fantasy football. A player’s value is strictly how many points they can bring to your team on a weekly basis. Basketball teams have started using this technique but football teams are behind the curve. If I were in the front office of a football team and someday I hopefully will, I would implement this type of analysis to determine the value of players.

My system for drafting a fantasy football team is first to estimate how well a player will do the next season. I try to implement “experts’” opinions, key changes, stats from previous seasons, and the trend of their stats from previous seasons. After estimating a point total for about 200 players, I use historical context of previous drafts to determine about what rank on my list for each position will be available after the draft (for example, We have 12 teams each team must start 1 qb, most teams draft 2 qb’s, some draft 3, maybe someone will draft 1. I think about 26 qb’s will be drafted. Seeing as some people will rank the talent in a different order I would guess that the 21st qb on my list will go undrafted. The 21st qb on my list then sets the benchmark). A player’s value in pure fantasy points is worthless. The top 10 qb’s will outscore most other players in the league. But that does not make them the most valuable; in fact it makes them quite the opposite. The fact that there are so many good qb’s makes them less valuable. The value of a player in my system is how much more he will score from the best substitute. If the best QB can score 100 more points then the 21st best QB he has a value of 100 pts. I rank all players by their point differential from the best substitute.

In the NFL this type of methodology could be used, the constraints are different, and it would be more difficult to analyze a player’s value, but I believe that it could be done. More complicated social problems have been analyzed using this econometrics method, so I believe it could be applied to the NFL.

Recently, I have found a new interest in pursuing engineering as a career. I read this article that talked about the cutting edge of technology that might be 15-30 years away. The world is radically changing at an exponential pace. By the time I die the world will probably be more different then it was between my birth and the birth of my great great grandfather. My main concern is the day to day work could be quite tedious, but to be an engineer at the front lines of these major changes would be very rewarding work. A path in engineering is still on the back burner but I am farther from ruling it out than I have been in years.

Tonight I will be back at the beer exchange. Brad is finally back from Connecticut and he had a good time. I think Danny did find a way to sell his ticket to the World Series. He won 12,000 dollars from a free tourney. You can’t complain about that, but I wanted to see him compete. I have earned 4 buy ins back from my poker slide so hopefully this will continue. Only two weeks left in Madison so I better make the most of it.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

 

Madison and How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.

It is now Saturday night. While I intend to write on Friday mornings, last week I didn’t post my message until Monday, so at least there is improvement. I will focus this entry on my trip so far in Madison, WI. Hopefully in my next entry I can do a little more critical thinking and less story telling, but I think both elements are important. To pick up where I left off, I had returned from U of I (which was after my trip to New York)…

I returned on Sunday July 9th, the day of the World Cup championship game. I Tivo’d the game because it was being played while I was on my way back from Champaign. I took all precautions necessary when Tivo’ing a sporting event.

Being able to Tivo a sporting event and not have the result ruined for you is a skill. You must be willing to sacrifice certain risky situations, but over the last two years I have become an expert. There are two important precautions one must take. The first is starting all conversations with “Don’t say anything about such and such.” The second is to avoid situations where information of that nature could be broadcasted (i.e. TV, internet, radio, friends). At school we went as far as establishing a rule in my room that sports could not be discussed without permission (after several incidents involving mostly Danny Cirulnick).

When I did finally watch the game I was very impressed and enjoyed the action until the final result. As much as I hate the French, I really hate Italian soccer. Plus you got to like Zidane and Henry. Which brings me to Zidane’s infamous exit via red card from a head butt, best header of his career.

The next two days were spent mostly finishing Eric’s website, working out, and goofing around before leaving for Madison. On Wednesday, Eric, Danny, and I drove north and I moved in to my home, Brad’s frat house, for the next month. We had one night of drunken debauchery with Brad, without any face punching incidents, at the bars before Kim (read: under 21) arrived.

The following day (Thursday), I woke up and the three of us drove to pick up Kim at the Madison airport. It had only been a week since I had seen her last, but it was great to have her in town. We grabbed a bite to eat at Amy’s and headed back to hang out at the house. When Brad and Tony returned from work we all headed to the lake. While at the lake we swam, played catch, and just laid out and enjoyed the nice weather. When we returned from the beach we met Bo, Brad’s frat brother, at the house and went out for a game of basketball. Dinner was at Vien Tien, a spicy and delicious Thai place. That night we drank again and walked pretty far for a house party tht was not worth the trip. The bars were not an option so we staggered all the way back to the house to finish the night. It was just great to be out with all of my friends and Kim.

Friday turned out to be a pretty lazy day. We returned to the beach for some more of the same, this time without Brad. When we got back to the car, climbed in, and drove about 20 feet before some guy informed us that we had a flat. Sure enough we did and we started to go through the normal procedure for changing a tire when it turned into the biggest hassle of all time. Eric’s car has a special nutlock that prevents you from taking off the tire without the nutkey. A pretty smart crime prevention system, until the key becomes worn down and ineffective at getting the nut off. It took a while before we called a tow truck as a last solution. When the tow truck came he had a pneumatic tool that he believed could do the trick. After about 30 seconds of failure he was about to quit when one last try knocked the nut free. From there it was easy does it, a quick tire change and we were finally on our way. When we made it back to the Pi Lambda Phi house it was time for a little grilling on the porch. This Friday started to shape out like most other days I spent in Madison, beach and grill. Kim and I were so tired by the end of the day that we just relaxed and called it an early night.

Saturday, Eric and Danny left for Chicago. Kim and I just took the day slow and hung out. My mom, Uncle Arthur, and Aunt Alyss came up to Madison. We ate at the Union, took a walk down lake shore path, and did some street shopping. It was nice to see my family and it was fun to see my Mom and uncle on their old territory. That night we made a point to have a nice dinner and we went to an Italian place on State Street, Toti Pasta. It was mostly good but the dish I ordered left something to be desired. It didn’t match up to Pasta Jay’s in Boulder.

Sunday morning Kim and I woke up to go sailing. We were going to rent a Mini-Skow but when we got there we decided to take out a Catamaran which is my favorite boat to sail. It was a windy and sunny day, perfect for sailing. I decided that it was unlikely that we would tip so I told Kim to bring my camera. You could probably guess what happened next. A gust of wind, a rusty sailor, and over we went. Kim was pretty freaked out as we went over, but recovered quickly. I had tipped a Cat dozens of times before so I was not that worried. There was a fee for recovering the boat so I tried really hard to get it back upright myself. We got very close once but it was to no avail and I became too weak to pull it effectively again. They came out to help but cut down the rescue fee substantially. Sailing was great; it was a lot of fun, even tipping. I was a little worried about my camera. I took the battery out and let everything dry. When I tried to fire it up the next day it would not start but a few days later I got it going again. Kim and I went for a pizza at Ian’s (I got steak and fries pizza) before I dropped her off at the airport. The rest of the day was settling myself in my room and taking care of all of the stuff I was putting off until everyone had left.

Since then things have been pretty quiet. I’ve been spending the majority of my days exercising, playing poker, working on my whatifsports team, and goofing around. I have been perfecting my technique at making bacon lorettas. A couple of fun and noteworthy things have happened since Kim left.

The following Wednesday and Thursday was Tony’s 21st birthday. Tony loves power hours and so do I, it made for a deadly combination and I passed out by 11:00 before everyone went out to the bars. The next night I learned from my mistakes and started a little later and made it to bar time and had some fun with all of Brad’s frat brothers. Friday morning I got my first sense of how ridiculous of drunks Brad’s friends are. After a hard night of drinking I woke up to the sound of Tony and everyone up early getting hammered again at 10:00 in the morning. It was like college game day. Friday, Brad’s frat and the frat across the street (Beta Theta Pi) closed off their court and set up outdoor beer pong. I was the only one in the house not drunk at noon. I went out for a run and when I returned Bo was passed out on the porch with empty bottles completely covering him. Moments later Bo awoke and attempted to go back down the stairs to the street when halfway he turned to go back up the stairs. He fell and sat their as his pants, then leg, then shoes got wet. With urine. Basically, Bo was so drunk that he completely pissed himself. The best part is he stumbles up to his room and when he gets there he doesn’t immediately change or take off his piss soaked pants, he opens his fridge and chows on Chinese food. A true drunk. The weekend continued in this way until Monday night.

But, it turns out Monday is the best night to go to the bars in Madison so we obliged. First we went to State Street Brats for dinner and to check out the Beer Exchange. In Brats on Mondays all beer prices are subject to change every 15 minutes depending on how well they sell. TV screens around the bar show the prices and trends of all of the beers. You can get $1 pints of local tasty beers, if you can buy low. Or if you get tired of waiting for the prices to dip as we did you could head to Vintage where they have $1 cups of Wisconsin beers. When I got there my friends were all already there and had a table outside. Unfortunately there was a bug line to get in, so I used some of my persuading powers to get in a little early. I convinced the doorman that I was already inside and I was taking a call. The story seemed especially suspicious because there was no empty chair at my friends’ table. I explained this by saying that one of the guys had not been there when I left. He either believed me or stopped caring and let me in. He looked like Morgan Spurlock from Supersize Me so we joked that he was being a doorman for 30 days for his TV show on FX.

Tuesday night, Brad and Tony, my two main friends here in Madison, left for Connecticut for 5 days. Since then things have been even lower key. It was also the lowest point of one of the biggest poker slides I have taken. I lost about 1,500 dollars in like 3000 hands. I was helpless against the unlucky streak of cards I was seeing. Part of being a good poker is being able to deal with these inevitable swings and prevent a 1500 dollar swing because of bad luck turn into a 3,000 dollar swing because of bad playing. I changed my routine to play more at night when the players are considerably looser with their money. I have since made back 300 and will hopefully be back to my winning ways soon.

Wednesday I played beer pong with Bo against some Betas. We won two of three and then went to Brats for 10 cent wing night. What a deal, a meal for two bucks. Friday Bo and I (we have been spending a lot of time together because we are the only two around) went to play basketball at the rec center. I was happy because my team held the court thru 4 straight wins. I was not exactly a great threat on offense, but on defense I did well to grab rebounds guard my guy and make opportunistic steals and blocks. I don’t think I’ve had as much fun playing 5 on 5 in a long time. Winning makes me happy. Bo and I were so tired by the end we just spent an hour on the porch talking and drinking Gatorade. After a much neede shower, we got some food, got drunk, and headed out to the bars. At Johny O’s we meet up with Tim (another Pi Lam) and someone else. They challenged us to a game of darts and it was on. Bo and I crushed them and continued to get drunk. At bar time we staggered back to the house and went to bed.

This morning I woke up with a slight hangover, which is very uncommon for me. I ate some zucchini bread from an awesome package Kim sent me, and I went on a long walk to a music store where I could buy guitar strings (I snapped one). After a rest I started hydrating for the longest run on my program and the longest run of my life, 7 miles. I had an amazingly difficult time with it but made it back within my goal time. I am at the peak difficulty of my training and from here it winds down for a two week finish that should go smoothly. I made a gigantic plate of pasta and meat sauce and spent the night playing poker, reading, and writing this before I go to bed.

Now that we are caught up I will be writing articles with a greater mix up reflection and introspection. Having a lot of time without any structure has been great and might not happen again any time soon so I am glad I have taken advantage of it this summer.

Monday, July 24, 2006

 

Trip Report: NY

To continue where I left off, I spent Fourth of July weekend in New York visiting Kim. I had a great trip and I will try to recapture the details here.

The night before I left for New York, I made sure to go to Tsukasa of Tokyo (favorite restaurant). I knew that the window to go before the summer was over was closing. After I returned from New York I planned to go to U of I and Madison, another chance for Tsukasa might not come. I worked it out so I could get my haircut and then meet Eric, Danny, Rob, Lindsey, Natalie, Mike Lazar, and Zach Pollakof (weird) at Tsukasa.

My haircut was more of an adventure then I had suspected. I asked the lady to take off 2 inches, well, 4 inches later I was a new short haired boy. I have gotten mixed reviews on my haircut, mostly positive (which could be accounted for by generosity). Overall, Kim likes it short (after two years of telling me she likes it long) and that is good enough for me. I will probably keep it this length for a while.

Tsukasa was everything I always expect it to be. A couple of sake bombs, great food, entertaining service, a dining experience delight. After dinner, I reluctantly went with Eric to his gig at Howl at the Moon. Howl at the Moon is a dueling piano bar downtown and Eric was trying to land a steady job there on the weekdays. I told Eric I would go with him before I left for New York so I went despite my early flight the next day. Eric played a good set and we went back to Highland Park. I packed and got to bed at around 3:00AM.

5:00 AM Friday morning, my phone alarm sounds and I roll out of Bed and into the airport. I slept on the plane and after some confusion with the pickup, Kim rolled up with her Forester and I was very happy to see her. We stopped for some bagels, NY style (I still don’t see what makes them any different). I think I have trouble discerning between good and great bagels, I guess that is something I could work on.

After breakfast we quickly stopped by Kim’s dad’s place and then to her mom’s. We laid out by the pool and napped, being together made it pretty special. I remember we went to dinner at this great Italian place, Matteo’s. When you walk in you feel like the head of an organized crime syndicate. When you walk in, everyone working there looks really glad to see you and asks you how you are. The maitre d’ shook my hand and welcomed me. They sat us right away in what looked like a private party section that was completely empty. At this point, I’m thinking that I must look like someone they know or I have a lot to learn about Kim and her family. As the evening went on I realized that business as usual was to treat people that way. The food was also great, a little pricey but I was on vacation.

Saturday involved a trip to Kim’s family’s 4th of July extravaganza. Some schmoozing, swimming, softball, and lack of sobriety Barry style. It all went pretty well but a couple of things that seemed insignificant at the time turned out to have a significant impact later. The first of which was that Kim and I drove separately from her dad. I believe that this sparked a bit of distrust and his sense of me giving him a cold shoulder. A drive with Kim’s dad like the year before would have been a good opportunity to catch up and chat. We failed to find time for such a chat during my trip. He also has some anxiety about losing his daughter and this separation may have seemed more than physical convenience to him. Compounded with their trip through Chicago where Kim and I spent most of the time without him. I think I have patched everything up now, which may prove vital in seeking employment after graduation. I also had a short conversation with two of Kim’s uncles about football. With one I discussed how I coach youth football and with the other I discussed how I wanted to work in the front office of an NFL football team. Somehow this may turn into an opportunity to get a job with the Steelers or Giants.

Sunday, Kim and I took what was supposed to be a three hour drive to Long Beach Island on the Jersey shore. The drive turned out to be six hours but was quite worth it none-the-less. When we arrived we immediately headed for the beach and despite it being windy and cold I jumped into the water (after some convincing) and we had a good time. Sunday night was a blackout on the Island so we were unable to eat at Kim’s favorite restaurant. It all worked out because Kim’s aunt Sheri and Uncle Pat cooked us a fine meal. This may have another opportunity where I scored big points with a man that could get me a job.

Monday was a day at the beach with boogie boarding, laying out, getting sunburn, and swimming with Kim. Obviously it was a great day. That night we went to her favorite restaurant on LBI. It was a seafood place so I tried some seafood and it certainly went better than a trip to Red Lobster, but I have once and for all determined that steak is my thing, not seafood. Kim and I would agree on food more if I liked seafood or if she liked tasty scrumptious treats like bacon lorettas. After dinner we packed back up and headed back to Long Island, this time it only took 3 hours, thankfully. One of the best parts of the trip was the outdoor shower and cleaning the saltwater off. I felt so clean and it felt so good. We stayed in a hotel that night and the next, a solid addition to the trip.

Tuesday was my last day in New York; I left early the next morning. It was also the 4th of July. We woke up and watched some Law ad Order, just hanging out, before going to Kim’s friend Sam’s 4th of July party. It consisted mostly of hanging out by the pool, eating, and watching the World Cup Semi’s. After a few hours Kim and I left to have dinner with Kim’s dad. After Dinner we went to same place as the year before to watch the fireworks with Kim’s friends Sam and Armony. The next day Kim and I had breakfast and she drove me to the airport. I was delayed for like 5 hours but eventually made it home. Overall I would the trip was an overwhelming success.

 

Boulder vs Champaign, own3d

Hey it’s not Friday morning, but it sure is close. Sunday evening (Monday morning by posting time). A quick update on my summer goals and then I will backtrack and talk about my trips to New York and U of I. Poker has been a disaster lately. I have managed to play but have been getting killed. Today was much better and hopefully I will be getting back on the right track soon. Danny won a seat at the World Series of Poker via an online free-roll. He plans on selling the seat but if he is unable to, I would love to see him make a ton of money. If he does I hope he sticks it in everyone’s face. Too bad he would never do that.

Exercising is almost back on track. I have worked hard for the last week and done some two-a-days, skipped rest days, and after I run tonight will be back on schedule. My 8 week program is 5 weeks done and the other day I ran the farthest distance I have ever run, 6 miles. I am happy with the results so far and I am considering training to run a 5 minute mile after these 8 weeks are up. I’ll keep you posted.

Guitar playing is still moving along very slowly, but I have some ideas as far as song-writing and I plan to implement them shortly. And now, I’ll move onto some stories about my trips to New York and Champaign.

U of I:

U of I was the only school other than Colorado that I applied to, but seeing as I never visited, I hardly considered it when I decided to go to CU. This fact is important because it triggered some thought that I will get into later. First a trip report.

The weekend after 4th of July is always Greek Week at U of I. I’m not sure how the tradition started but it is the one weekend all of the Greeks travel back to Champaign and party. If I was to visit, this weekend seemed to be best. I went down with Rob (a Sammy (Sigma Alpha Mu)), Jason Shiftman (his frat brother from Stevenson High), Lauren (Rob’s girlfriend), Lindsey Margolis, and Suzie Berman (flashback to Jr High). The first thing I noticed was that Rob’s apartment is both cool and ridiculous. It is very well set up for a social atmosphere. You can see like 7 parties going on at once on a weekend night, but it looks like a prison with more generous accommodations, like prison deluxe. I will try to share pictures if I can get my camera to work (that story will come later). There is not much to tell about my trip, I went to the bars (which are 19 in U of I, weird but cool), played golf, and went for a run around town. It was a short weekend trip. I attempted to go to the U of I Sarkis, but it was closed for the summer. I had a good time and decided despite the fact that Rob’s frat was full of somewhat annoying people and I was unable to find any of them interested in going to Hooters on Saturday night to watch UFC 61.

On my run through the U of I campus and many parts of my trip I continually thought about what my life would be like if I went to U of I. Or in other words, how my life would be different. Obviously I would have different friends, a different girlfriend (if any), my weekend activities would have to be different, and I would probably drink considerably more heavily. The real question is, would I be different? More happy? Less happy?

I am fairly certain if I went to U of I, I would have made equally great friends in some fraternity that suited me well. I would have had great, albeit different, life experiences. Does this mean that if I substitute one decision for another, would I be different? I would argue that Boulder and U of I are dynamically different. I would certainly be affected and changed. I am so happy I am going to University of Colorado and am even more charged about returning for one last lap.

Seeing as I am supposed to write again this morning in my journal, I will use the nest entry to talk about my trip to NY.

Monday, July 17, 2006

 

Chicago and the girl who was a 1 on a scale from 0 to 1

I’m very bad at keeping up with this journal so I should probably come up with a schedule. Let’s say twice a week is probably best. For at least the rest of the summer, I will write on Monday and Friday mornings. Being Monday, It is best if I review my last month since I got back from Vegas.

Chicago

When I got home to Chicago I noticed what large amounts of free time I had. I did not stick well to my three goals for the summer. In terms of playing guitar, I have played more than I did all school year but still not the hours I was hoping to get in practice every day. I am going to set as a realistic goal one hour of guitar playing every day for the rest of the summer. My plans for exercising started off very well but since my trip to New York they have fallen apart. I will work hard to get back on schedule and exercise according to the program that I got from Gannon. It requires a series of floor exercises and a lot of running. It should be a healthy way to fill my day. I have also thought about training to run a 5 minute mile. Seeing as I probably can’t run a 6 minute mile that would be a lofty but I believe achievable goal. After I am done with the 8 week program I am on I will determine if running a 5 minute mile is worthwhile. The hours that I intended to spend playing on the internet (4-5 a day) I have fallen very short of. Fortunately my win rate has increased significantly and I had a big cash in a tournament. In terms of my bank account my poker playing has been an enormous success, in terms of hours not so much. I guess I have a lot of work to do in terms of goal setting and reaching, Here goes attempt #2.

My time in Chicago was rather uneventful accept for one little experience I had at a bar in Palatine. I was debating whether to go downtown and party with Charlie at Marc Fiedler’s or go with Rob to his friends birthday party in Palatine. So, Brad, Rob, Danny and I piled into Rob’s car for a trip. While I was waiting for Rob I poured myself my first mixed drink of the night, a midget’s revenge (mountain dew and raspberry vodka). I finished that drink in a few minutes and Rob had yet to come pick me up, so, I did what any bored person with a 2 liter bottle of raspberry vodka and a 24 pack of mountain dew would do, I poured myself another one. Just then, Rob pulled up so I jumped into the car and finished my drink on the way there. By the time we got there I already had a good buzz going. There was a pretty good cover band playing and I decided my drink if the evening would be can after can of PBR. Seeing as we were meeting Rob’s new girlfriend and fiends from school, it seemed like an excellent opportunity to embarrass him. As I got drunker and drunker I started showing off my 0 to 1 scale. My binary system for rating girls quickly and effectively. A guy came up to me and gave me some lip about my AC/DC hat so I came right back at him and made fun of his stupid glasses. He was pretty cool, at the time, and goofed around with me as I attempted to show him how stupid his glasses were, by course of a public opinion poll. A couple minutes later, I stagger over to him and notice he is talking to some girl. I show off my amazing rating system and find out that some people are not so quick to pick up on the scale and its meaning. Still messing with the guy with the stupid glasses I tell the girl he is talking to that she is a 1 on a scale from 0 to 1. She either did not understand to scale or failed to hear the important second half of my claim. Nonetheless she was pissed to be a 1.
I must have been a littler to intoxicated to react properly but as she got madder and madder I repeated, “That’s a compliment, that’s a compliment.”

She took this remark as further insult, like “you’re a 1 and that’s a compliment.”

She then asked me if I wanted to fight, being drunk and clearly underestimating her resolve to be in a bar terrace brawl, I said, “Bring it on!”

She dropped her purse and I took a couple quick punches to my left eye before I backed up in complete drunken confusion. My friends escorted me out knowing nothing good could come of that situation. We drove back to Highwood, where my night cooled off with a Corona purchased by an old High School friend, Abi, who we ran into at Teddy O’s.

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